Paradigm Shifts

At the age of 52 my father announced that he was considering building a large grocery store in the Spokane Valley. He claimed, that if the store he wanted to build was not successful, he could loose everything. Not like he hadn't been on the brink before, but he was younger then and had significantly less net worth at risk. At 57,000 sq. ft. this store would be almost twice the size of our next largest store and would house over $1,000,000.00 in inventory. The interesting thing is, the time was right. There had been changes made over the years that allowed some mitigation of risk, and the concept had proven successful in the Midwest.

About that time a couple of companies entered the market claiming that they could accurately predict the sales of grocery stores of various sizes built on a given location. They had been having some success throughout the country. Before they came along most grocers used their own version of the S.W.A.G. method, (Scientific Wild Ass Guessing).

In addition we had just purchased our first desktop computer, a Burroughs. I don't remember the year but it cost $13,000.00, had very little hard drive, and ran on the dos operating system. Windows did not exist at that time. The thing came with a Multiplan spreadsheet software and over time I taught myself to use it. The spreadsheet made it possible for me to run sales and expense scenarios very rapidly and while that capability may not have actually mitigated risk, it did help us to understand the risk we were undertaking.

Finally, we had made trips to areas of the country where they were building this store concept and my father having experience in building stores had no problem overseeing its construction. At the time the store was under construction I was still managing the Sandpoint store and didn't go to Spokane to help out until it was time to bring in equipment and start stocking the store. Since I had been actively purchasing direct truckloads of merchandise for the Sandpoint store, I also purchased about $500,000.00 in direct truckload merchandise for the grand opening of the Spokane Valley location.

The store was completed, it was the last night before the grand opening. I'd walked around the store that day just to get a feel for it. It felt right, it looked right. Even though I had no knowledge of paradigm shifts, at the time, I suddenly realized I was in the middle of something different. A specific time or window of opportunity that would not last. That night at my Fathers home I suggested that we should start building a second store, of that same concept, in Spokane, right away. I guess he thought that was a little funny when he asked me where we'd get the money. I knew he had a couple grocery store buildings that he'd been leasing out. I just blurted out, sell the Deer Park building if you have to we need to get another one up as quick as we can. Shortly thereafter he did sell the Deer Park building, and we began construction on the Foothills store.

If you understand the history of a certain industry and stay on top of the latest technological advances across industries you can, to some degree, predict the future. Predicting the future is where entrepreneurs stake their claim to fame and fortune. Keep an eye out for paradigm shifts.